Buy Inderal online without prescription, The belief that Latin America’s relative stability of the last seven years will last is a mirage. I believe that under the surface of the region’s impressive economic growth and democratic governance lie the seeds of regional instability. Venezuela may be the catalyst to a series of unstable conditions that will harm the region and the interests of the US government and private industry. Nothing tells me the US or its MNCs that operate in the region are prepared, or preparing, for those changes in a way that will deal with Latin America’s realities and the security needs of the US in the Hemisphere.
Latin America is stable now. But there are signs that point to a high probability of instability in the future, especially if Venezuela goes into economic and political chaos. The repercussions of a Venezuelan economic and political meltdown will be felt throughout the region.
Here is what I predict will happen in: Venezuela; Colombia; Ecuador; Paraguay; Perú; Bolivia; Chile; Argentina; Brazil; and, Central America, Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California.
The belief that Latin America’s relative stability of the last seven years will last is a mirage. I believe that under the surface of the region’s impressive economic growth and democratic governance lie the seeds of regional instability. Venezuela may be the catalyst to a series of unstable conditions that will harm the region and the interests of the US government and private industry, buy Inderal online without prescription. Nothing tells me the US or its MNCs that operate in the region are prepared, Kjøpe Inderal online, bestill Inderal online, or preparing, for those changes in a way that will deal with Latin America’s realities and the security needs of the US in the Hemisphere.
The US policy of Benign Neglect toward Latin America (excluding Colombia) in the last seven years was predicated on two beliefs. Latin America, from México to Argentina, canada, mexico, india, was irrelevant within the US Global War on Terror, focused as it is on threats against the US from Al-Qaeda terrorists in the Middle East and Afghanistan. And the region had achieved stability through open elections, El Paso, Texas. Washington, D.C. Seattle, Washington, democratically elected governments (excluding Cuba), orthodox economics, globalization based on exports of commodities and minerals, and alleviation of poverty in Chile, México, buy Inderal no prescription, Colombia, Perú, and Brazil.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, Benign Neglect also assumed the changes in Latin America would remain stable over time. Inderal in cats, dogs, children, They would insulate the region from reverting to dictatorships, statist economics, military coups, communist or socialist enticements, and the social unrest of the past, Inderal pharmacy.
However, there are signs that those changes even in Chile, the model of effective governance and economic management in the region, Where can i buy Inderal online, can’t be taken for granted.
Leftist parties govern about 316 million people, including South America’s three largest economies, Brazil, Argentina, buy cheap Inderal no rx, and Venezuela, along with Chile, Ecuador, Kjøpe Inderal online, bestill Inderal online, and Uruguay, and Nicaragua in Central America. Right, or right-leaning parties, govern México, Inderal pharmacy, Colombia, Perú, and Paraguay, Where can i order Inderal without prescription, which may go to the left in the coming presidential elections.
Threats to Current Stability
The threats to the current stability do not come from the left, as feared by the US, buy Inderal online without prescription. Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina have leftist governments in good standing with the conservative Bush Administration. Chile has been governed by a socialist coalition, buy Inderal online cod, Concertación, for the last 17 years.
The threats the US and the region should worry about, 650mg, 800mg, 875mg, 900mg, and be prepared to counter, come from government policies and unattended needs.
Hugo Chávez has kept Venezuela under his grip since first elected in 1998, with a brief coup disruption in 2002.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, Chávez has been elected and reelected in democratic elections in which the opposition has participated, except when the opposition, unwisely, chose not to participate. A majority of Venezuelans approve of Chávez, comprar en línea Inderal, comprar Inderal baratos, while some in the opposition benefit from Chávez’s internal economic profligacy and his turning Petróleos de Venezuela – PDVSA, the national oil company, into his own economic and social development bank. 0.4mg, 0.5mg, 1mg, 2.5mg,
However, Chávez’s restrictions on freedom of the press, nationalization of natural resources and telecommunications, unrestrained spending of oil wealth throughout the world, absolute control over the National Assembly, order Inderal online overnight delivery no prescription, and the forthcoming amendment to the National Constitution to enable unlimited presidential terms and the abolition of the central bank independence threaten to throw Venezuela into political and economic chaos. There is only so much authoritarianism and economic uncertainty Venezuelans, including some of Chávez’s own supporters, Online buy Inderal without a prescription, will take. Given its lack of industrial diversification, Venezuela is a one-commodity country - oil. Were a world economic contraction lead to a significant decline in oil prices, Venezuela would be hit with an economic shock for which Chávez is unprepared, buy Inderal online without prescription.
At this time, Venezuela’s opposition lacks the power to finance an anti-Chávez campaign, buy Inderal without a prescription, nor does it have the cohesion and viable leadership necessary to challenge Chávez. Therefore, the unthinkable in today’s Latin America might occur: a military coup as the only viable alternative to establish order. Where can i find Inderal online,
As it has been reported widely, many Venezuelans have never had it better, buying SUVs and luxury goods thanks to easy credit. But poverty in the countryside continues and inflation is higher than official figures show. Buy Inderal online without prescription, More ominous, as a Venezuelan analyst said to me recently, the army is roughly divided into thirds: one solidly behind Chávez out of conviction; one with Chávez out of expediency and corruption; and, one against Chávez out of conviction.
Chávez’s control of Venezuelan’s political and economic space rests on two factors: his charisma and petrodollars, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona. Were these to falter in the absence of a viable opposition, the likelihood of a military coup in Venezuela to establish political and economic order seems high. We can’t forget that Latin American ruling parties have traditionally resorted to military solutions when the problems they created spun out of control. Buy Inderal no prescription, Peron (Argentina), Perez Jiménez (Venezuela), Rojas Pinilla (Colombia); Banzer (Bolivia), Pinochet (Chile), Stroessner (Paraguay) and the Brazilian and Argentinean military juntas rose to power to counter economic and political chaos and uncertainty, order Inderal online c.o.d.
If it is true that Venezuela’s Central Bank is broke because Chávez raided its reserves, the new government will find itself saddled with commitments made by Chávez that total over US$50 billion, and a country polarized between the haves and the have-nots that revere Chávez as their savor, while previous governments failed them, buy Inderal online without prescription.
What would a military government mean for Venezuela and Latin America. For Venezuela, the probability of bloody street encounters is high. Farmacia Inderal baratos, Inderal online kaufen, Chávez’s supporters will fight to retain the gains Chávez gave them against a new government unable to meet their economic demands, and an opposition set on dismantling Chávez’s 21st Socialism.
For Latin America, Argentina, Bolivia, buy generic Inderal, Perú, Ecuador, Brazil, Austin, Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, Colombia, and Central America will lose a prickly benefactor, the man who has been there with his wallet or a project, ready to “assist in time of need,” no matter how ill-conceived the need was, Inderal coupon, such as to help finance current account deficits in Argentina and Ecuador, or incite Bolivia and Ecuador into nationalizing foreign property and natural resources.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, Chávez has also welcomed and facilitated Iran’s presence in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Cuba. Thanks to Iran and Venezuela’s energy and technology agreements, Inderal withdrawal, Iran will open five embassies in Latin America. This is enlarging and reinforcing the presence of Hezbollah outside its traditional home in the Tri-Border Area (TBA -- Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay).
Alvaro Uribe has been, Inderal from canadian pharmacy, and remains, the US’s staunchest ally in Latin America, yet the US has so far denied him a free trade agreement, Reasons to buy Inderal online, which, ironically, would be more beneficial to the US than to Colombia.
As Uribe wars against drug production, drug traffickers, acheter en ligne Inderal, acheter Inderal bon marché, paramilitaries and guerrillas, and tries to distance himself from the parapolítica scandal that has tainted his reputation and government, Colombia’s insurgents and irregular armies have moved to the border regions in Venezuela and Ecuador. Along with them go increased corruption, collusion of governments with common criminals, arms, drug, and human trafficking, and sundry illegal activities, buy Inderal online without prescription. Australia, uk, us, usa, As it is, Venezuela’s Isla Margarita is a center of these activities and Colombian drug traffickers have made Venezuela the second cocaine and arms transshipment country after Brazil.
It is highly unlikely conservative and traditional Colombia will go to the left once Uribe leaves office in three years. That is, if his followers do not succeed in a specious interpretation of the National Constitution that would allow Uribe to run for a third time because, Inderal for sale, technically, the amended, presidential-term clause that permits reelection to a consecutive term was adopted during Uribe’s first term. Inderal over the counter, Therefore, proponents of Uribe’s reelection allege he has been elected only once.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, However, neither Uribe nor tradition nor conservatism can insulate Colombia from the criminal collusion and corruption that corrode its armed forces, law enforcement, government institutions, such as Congress and ministries, and the judiciary. All these are serious threats to the survival of democratic institutions.
Were Venezuela to go into political and economic turmoil, the exodus of Venezuelans to Colombia, buy cheap Inderal, already high, will increase. Colombia is ill prepared to meet their needs and to incorporate them into the legal labor force. Where can i buy cheapest Inderal online, The Uribe administration, like its predecessors, has been unable to service and meet the needs of the 2 million people internally displaced in Colombia. Also, an economically unstable Venezuela will hurt Colombia’s export revenue, buy Inderal online without prescription. Venezuela is Colombia’s second largest trading partner. Colombia would also lose two of its major investors in its oil and gas sector – Chávez and PDVSA, Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee. Portland, Oregon.
The threat is not so much from Venezuela as it is from Ecuador’s own policies regarding its national oil company, Petroecuador, the upgrade of the Manta Port, Köpa Inderal online, Osta Inderal online, Jotta Inderal verkossa, and the lease of the Eloy Alfaro Air Force Base to the US government.
If Chávez were gone, or economically handicapped, Ecuador will lose an important financier, which is likely to be replaced by China, 400mg, 450mg, 500mg, 625mg. Buy Inderal online without prescription, China has expressed its intention to make Ecuador the center of its activities in the Andean Region, particularly by financing the upgrades at Manta to make it China’s leading port on the Pacific.
President Correa will not renew the US lease on the Eloy Alfaro Air Force Base, the center of antidrug and surveillance flights by the DEA over Colombia. This means China will be next door to the base. Inderal samples, Although China has made a point of not intervening in Latin America’s political affairs, the Manta Base would be accessible should China decide to challenge the US militarily in Latin America.
As elsewhere, oil and politics go hand in hand in Ecuador. By government policy that uses Petroecuador’s revenues as the cash cow of the government of the day, Petroecuador has had no profits to reinvest in prospecting for reserves or to upgrade facilities and expand exploration, buy Inderal online without prescription. Therefore, rx free Inderal, Ecuador faces the collapse of its oil industry in the coming four to five years, if no new fields go onstream. Exports of bananas, Buy Inderal from canada, of which Ecuador is the world’s largest exporter, can’t sustain the Ecuadorian economy.
What would be next. Colombians are fleeing to Ecuador by the thousands. Buy Inderal online without prescription, About 800 a week. They are moving to the poorest regions in northern Ecuador where municipalities do not have the resources needed to house, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Las Vegas, Nevada, feed, and employ them. They face destitution. New York. Los Angeles, California, How can they survive under these conditions. By resorting to the Andes most profitable cash crop, coca cultivation and cocaine processing and distribution. There are already coca plantations and processing laboratories in Sucumbios and Carchi, buy Inderal online without prescription.
An estimated 250,000 Colombian refugees live in Ecuador now, purchase Inderal online no prescription, making it the Latin American country with the largest number of refugees.
Ecuador has neither the economic nor the political resilience Colombia has had; nor does it have Colombia’s diversified economy. Ecuador is ill-prepared to remain stable under the weight of illegal drugs, Baltimore, Maryland. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, their attendant corruption, and the displacement of the Colombian problem to its territory.
Landlocked and poor, Paraguay does not seem to present significant threats to Latin America or to the US interests in it. Buy Inderal online without prescription, However, Paraguay has Ciudad del Este –CDE, the capital of the Tri-Border Area – TBA. Much has been written about the TBA, købe Inderal online, αγοράζουν online Inderal, which does not bear repeating. However, the TBA is home to the largest concentration of Middle Easterners in Latin America. Buy Inderal online no prescription, This Arab and Muslim community, mostly of Lebanese and Syrian ancestry, is known by the US State Department to be a reliable financier of Hezbollah and other militant Muslim organizations.
The CDE is home to three known terrorists requested for extradition to Argentina to account for two attacks on Israeli institutions in Buenos Aires. Argentina alleges the attacks were carried out by Hezbollah operatives under the direction of former Iranian government officials, buy Inderal online without prescription.
CDE is known as a center of money laundering and contraband of all sorts, Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California. TBA is the epitome of Latin America’s porous, unmanageable, and uncontrollable intra-regional borders, Buy Inderal from mexico, made so by geography, topography, corruption, and collusion.
The TBA’s borders can be crossed unimpeded by anyone, purchase Inderal online. Controls are limited or non-existent. Buy Inderal online without prescription, This facilitates contraband and criminal activities. There are no extradition treaties among Brazil, Argentina, Order Inderal from mexican pharmacy, and Paraguay. This acts as one more incentive to criminal activity.
As of today, it seems Paraguayans are likely to elect as president a former catholic priest turned firebrand socialist, focused on social justice and nationalism, japan, craiglist, ebay, hcl. It is improbable that such a government will do what others have not, rein in and prosecute illegal activities in CDE and the TBA. This will add to the possibility of terrorists, or terrorist sympathizers, moving freely throughout the region, or en route to the US, buy Inderal online without prescription.
Alan García has governed better than expected. Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, However, his approval rating was the lowest since coming to office when the Pisco earthquake devastated Pisco, Chincha, and Ica, one of the most prosperous areas in southern Perú, Inderal in cats, dogs, children, on 18 August 2007.
Since then, the government has fumbled the distribution and allocation of assistance. Where can i buy Inderal online, About 200,000 people are living in makeshift housing, lacking employment, basic care, food, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg, water, medicines, child care facilities, Buy no prescription Inderal online, and schools, all during the coldest winter on record.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, The government’s disarray in relief operations creates fertile ground for the seeds of discontent and dissatisfaction with governance that might give rise to an Ollanta Humala-like politician desirous of capitalizing on massive discontent and need. We can’t afford to forget that Ollanta Humala, the firebrand socialist, was leading in the polls until his mother declared that homosexuals should be shot, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg.
Were dissatisfaction in the South to unite with the protests of and road-blocking by the coca growers in the northeast region and the Altiplano, the threat of instability will be great. This will affect adversely the massive investments in oil and gas and mining made by US MNCs and MNCs from Europe, Inderal snort, alcohol iteraction, China, Australia, and Japan. It would be a blow to the attraction of foreign direct investment, in which Perú has excelled in the last 10 years, Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California.
Brazil’s Petrobras announced it will invest again in Bolivia’s energy sector, buy Inderal online without prescription. This is the triumph of necessity over experience given the confiscation of its Gualbeto Villarroel refinery in Cochabamba and the Guillermo Elder Bell refinery in Santa Cruz. Petrobras received US$240 million in compensation for relinquishing to the Bolivian government an investment that totaled US$2.5bn over seven years.
All oil companies are scouring the world for reserves, Fort Worth, Texas. Denver, Colorado, and Bolivia, with the Hemisphere’s largest natural gas reserves, is next door. Petrobras has ample experience with Bolivia’s hydrocarbons law and energy litigation, having been Bolivia’s largest direct foreign direct investor until the nationalization of its two refineries by Morales was finalized in May 2007, Inderal price.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, If Morales fails to convene the constituent assembly that will enact a new constitution, he will face increased opposition from the provinces of Santa Cruz, Tarija, Beni, La Paz, and Pando, and secession demands by Santa Cruz.
Morales presides over an economically and politically polarized country. His claim to move against ambassadors and representatives of foreign organizations will increase the unease of foreign investors to enter Bolivia. Yet Bolivia needs the managerial expertise and technologies the foreigners bring to avert slipping into poverty and disarray, Jacksonville, Florida, Columbus, Ohio, despite its great natural wealth.
The growth and stability of Chile are not due to the reign of the late General Augusto Pinochet, but to the socialist governments of Concertación in the last 17 years. Their performance is exemplary, buy Inderal online without prescription.
But we are beginning to see strikes that include the destruction of vital infrastructure in the copper industry, and the obstruction of economic activity, El Paso, Texas. Washington, D.C. Seattle, Washington. Strikers are demanding what Chávez has given some Venezuelans: higher wages; work stability; increased pensions; better education at global, competitive levels, and cheaper and more accessible health care.
Add to this the fact that Chile is an energy insecure country, and you have an additional factor that might lead to instability. Chile depends on imports of natural gas from Bolivia via Argentina for its industrial production. Buy Inderal online without prescription, Argentina stops shipments periodically and raises prices, which affects Chile adversely. Energy dependency is Chile’s economic underbelly. The government is trying to achieve self-sufficiency but the first major gas liquefaction plant will not go onstream until early 2009.
I believe the days are long into the future, if at all, when Chile becomes unstable. But were Chile’s economic and political luster to decline in some significant way, it will be a blow to the belief that Latin America is governable when the right combination of factors: free press; free, competitive elections, a healthy opposition, strong institutions, low levels of corruption; a fair judiciary; reliable contract legal structures, and alleviation of poverty coexist in a given country.
Argentina and Brazil
Argentina’s presidential election is Cristina Kirchner’s to lose, buy Inderal online without prescription. Although allegedly not as pro-Chávez as her husband, president Néstor Kirchner, Cristina will face a country beset by energy shortages, high inflation, strikes, work stoppages, and a lack of access to easy international financing, outside of Chávez.
Lula’s government continues to be beset by scandal. However, Lula remains highly popular, but there is no clear, potential successor. There will not be chaos in Brazil once Lula’s leaves, but how his successor handles the poor and the disaffected who have given Lula two landslide elections will determine how effective he/she can govern Latin America’s largest economy.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, Were a global economic downturn to result in a decline of China’s commodity imports from Latin America, Brazil and Argentina will be badly hit. After all, most of Argentina’s impressive economic recovery and Brazil’s steady-as-you-go economic performance are, in grand part, dependent on China’s own growth in consumption of natural resources and agricultural commodities.
Excluding Costa Rica and Panama, Venezuela has helped the region with subsidized oil and infrastructure development loans.
Central America has a serious gang problem, which governments are unable or unwilling to control. Were Venezuela’s aid to decline, it will serve as an incentive to increased gang activity.
The violence created by the gangs will become a stronger disincentive for foreign direct investment in the region, buy Inderal online without prescription. The illegal economy will present profitable opportunities for the creation of a viable, illegal employment sector, and the illegal utilization of resources.
Latin America is stable now. But as shown, there are signs that point to a high probability of instability in the future, especially if Venezuela goes into economic and political chaos. The repercussions of a Venezuelan economic and political meltdown will be felt throughout the region.
Buy Inderal online without prescription, Until next time. Hasta Luego y Buena Suerte. Até Logo e Boa Sorte.
Maria Velez de Berliner, President, Latin Intelligence Corporation
email@example.com; Tel: 001-703-212-8589; www.lat-intel.com
Copyright © 2007 by Maria Velez de Berliner, President, Latin Intelligence Corporation, firstname.lastname@example.org, 001-703-212-8589. All rights reserved, Reproduction and distribution by any means whatsoever is strictly prohibited.
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