SECURITY ALERT
Colombia's Humanitarian Exchange: Political Consequences©
Buy Lidocaine online without prescription, Colombia's Senator Piedad Córdoba, Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez, and observers from the US, France, Spain, and Switzerland were to meet with representatives of FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) guerrillas on 8 October 2007 in Venezuela, across from the Colombian border. Their meeting was postponed indefinitely.
Why. Buy Lidocaine without prescription, Colombia dug in its heels, and FARC's representatives could not leave Colombia for fear of being detained or unable to return to their hunts. There can't be negotiations without the presence of the major players: the Colombian government and the FARC.
The FARC demands a zona de despeje (a zone free from military presence) in the municipalities of Pradera and Florida; the release of 250 high-value imprisoned guerrillas; the release by the US of "Simón Trinidad" (Ricardo Palmera) and "Sonia" (Anayibe Rojas), rx free Lidocaine, Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California, both jailed in the US; and, assurance by Colombia that FARC representatives can travel freely to Venezuela, 650mg, 800mg, 875mg, 900mg, Purchase Lidocaine online no prescription, or another host country, to participate in the negotiations.
President Alvaro Uribe said, order Lidocaine from mexican pharmacy, Buy Lidocaine no prescription, "No al despeje; no to the release of the guerrillas to go back to their hideouts; and no to the release of "Simón" and "Sonia" by the US. In addition, Uribe denied exit/re-entry permits to the FARC's representatives, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona,
The US agreed with Uribe's stance, and the prospective negotiations came to a halt, buy Lidocaine from canada. Japan, craiglist, ebay, hcl,
What's Next.
Here are three scenarios and their political consequences
1) The status quo of political positioning continues; no negotiations
Neither Uribe nor the FARC modifies his/its respective position. This will make negotiation impossible, Jacksonville, Florida, Columbus, Ohio, Australia, uk, us, usa, but it will give cover to both.
Uribe can continue to claim successful military actions have brought the FARC close to the negotiating table; he is willing to negotiate, but the FARC must not make untenable demands, buy Lidocaine online without prescription.
The FARC continues to hold the hostages, buy Lidocaine online no prescription, Lidocaine over the counter, claiming they can't negotiate with Uribe who, they claim, Lidocaine price, Buy generic Lidocaine, is doing the US bidding in Colombia.
However, köpa Lidocaine online, Osta Lidocaine online, Jotta Lidocaine verkossa, Order Lidocaine from mexican pharmacy, Senator Córdoba, with support from France's Nicolas Sarkozy, order Lidocaine online c.o.d, Lidocaine samples, has succeeded in making the humanitarian exchange an international issue. A non-interventionist Brazil has offered its territory and good offices for the negotiations. Nicaragua, Ecuador, farmacia Lidocaine baratos, Lidocaine online kaufen, Comprar en línea Lidocaine, comprar Lidocaine baratos, and Chile have also offered their assistance to solve the impasse. The US and Venezuela, at odds with each other, Baltimore, Maryland. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Where can i order Lidocaine without prescription, met to explore how both could work together to facilitate the exchange.
Therefore, Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg, the pressure is on Uribe and the FARC to negotiate for the release of the hostages. Both stand to lose if they persist in their current approach of thwarting negotiations by the FARC's demands and Uribe's unbendable response, buy Lidocaine online cod.
Given that Uribe's peace process and his seguridad ciudadana (citizen security) program are unraveling under the weight of the parapolítica Buy Lidocaine online without prescription, scandal, the release of the hostages, not of their remains, by the FARC will be the best legacy Uribe can leave Colombia. If Uribe, despite denials to the contrary, manages to qualify for re-election to a third consecutive term, he will have to show tangible progress against the FARC. Depriving the FARC of their trump card, the hostages, will tell Colombia and the world he can bring the FARC of today to heel. This is something Colombia's compromised military has not been able to do, despite some sporadic successes against the guerrillas.
The FARC can't continue to hold the hostages indefinitely. If indeed Ingrid Betancourt is still alive and well, the FARC can't risk harming her or the other hostages, including the three Northrop-Grumman workers it holds. The assassination of the representatives from El Valle confirmed the FARC for what it is: A murderous group, without a political ideology, whose major aim is terrorism. Despite Uribe's claims, the FARC of today has no chance of ever becoming a political force in Colombia, least of all taking over the government. However, its criminal activities can destroy peace and security in large swaths of the country, if left untamed. Buy cheap Lidocaine no rx,
This scenario is likely to prevail for awhile. However, it will cost Uribe politically as it will show him to be an intransigent, San Diego, California. Dallas, Texas. San Antonio, Texas, Purchase Lidocaine online, "dig your heels" leader, more interested in a political stance than in solving a critical situation.
It will cost the FARC, buy no prescription Lidocaine online, Online buy Lidocaine without a prescription, too. It will continue to be seen by Colombians and a majority of the international community as a terrorist, criminal group, buy cheap Lidocaine, 1000mg, 2000mg, without regard for human life and human rights, not interested in a settlement of the conflict they created.
2) Chávez and Córdoba and Representatives of the FARC Begin Negotiations
This will require flexibility that neither the Uribe government nor the FARC has shown so far. In fact, Lidocaine for sale, Buy Lidocaine without prescription, stubbornness has been the salient characteristic of each.
Therefore, the major interlocutors, købe Lidocaine online, αγοράζουν online Lidocaine, Boston, Massachusetts. Charlotte, Carolina, Chávez and Córdoba, will need to use their power of persuasion to, buy Lidocaine without a prescription, Where can i find Lidocaine online, at least, open the door to negotiations. That is, Austin, Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, Buy Lidocaine from mexico, engage in prenegotiations. This would be somewhat easy for Chávez and Córdoba to do with the FARC; both have relative credibility with the group. However, it will be difficult for Uribe. He and Chávez could not be more different politically and in style. Uribe has made Chávez's representation of the families of the hostages conditioned to a broad Colombo-Venezuelan agenda on energy, 650mg, 800mg, 875mg, 900mg, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg, trade, and border disputes. Córdoba and Uribe have been formidable, 400mg, 450mg, 500mg, 625mg, Rx free Lidocaine, mutual opponents since Córdoba entered the Colombian Senate.
Opening the door to Chávez, Córdoba and the FARC is likely to be perceived by Uribe's followers, Lidocaine coupon, Lidocaine from canadian pharmacy, and some of his opponents, as a diminution of his presidential power and a transfer of executive privilege to Chávez and Córdoba, order Lidocaine no prescription. Purchase Lidocaine online no prescription, It is one thing for Uribe to accept Chávez and Córdoba as interlocutors. It is another to give them the tools they need to negotiate, such as freedom of movement of FARC representatives and a modicum of flexibility in meeting their demands. Uribe is not known as a leader who sees virtue in necessary compromise to achieve his objectives, 0.4mg, 0.5mg, 1mg, 2.5mg. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Las Vegas, Nevada,
The FARC is likely to see prenegotiations as a success against Uribe. However, if the FARC agrees to release the hostages, Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee. Portland, Oregon, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona, it will lose its trump card; the one that makes them relevant to the international community and an actor worth of attention in Colombia.
Were this to happen, the FARC will extract a high price for it, New York. Los Angeles, California, Lidocaine withdrawal, either in freedom from prosecution, money, reasons to buy Lidocaine online, Acheter en ligne Lidocaine, acheter Lidocaine bon marché, or salvocounducto (free passage) to other countries, possibly Cuba or Venezuela. However, Fort Worth, Texas. Denver, Colorado, Online buying Lidocaine, it is unlikely that Cuba under Raúl Castro or Venezuela under Chávez would welcome a group of common criminals, with the capacity to destabilize large segments of their countries. Neither Raúl nor Chávez can afford this, order Lidocaine online overnight delivery no prescription. Where can i buy cheapest Lidocaine online, All they need do is look at Colombia and see the chaos and disruption guerrilla and government-sanctioned paramilitary activities have caused.
I believe some sort of political compromise will be reached. Possibly only some of the hostages are released, such as Betancourt and the three Americans; some FARC guerrillas are freed to remain in special seclusion in Bogotá or Medellín, Lidocaine snort, alcohol iteraction, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, under close military supervision. Some may be given safe passage to other countries, as in the case of Rodrigo Granda, the chancellor of the FARC, whom Uribe allowed to go to Cuba, as requested by Nicolas Sarkozy.
Both Uribe and the FARC would have partial wins. However, it will be difficult for Uribe to let Chávez and Córdoba to be seen as skilled negotiators, able to pull the rabbit out of the hat, buy Lidocaine online without prescription.
Despite Uribe's misgivings about these results, I believe this is the most likely scenario if Uribe, indeed, desires a solution to the plight of the hostages and defang the FARC. It is also the best possibility the FARC has for salvoconducto to other countries, and the possibility to live to fight another Colombian administration, another day.
3) All High-Value Hostages are Released
This will represent high costs to Uribe's legacy as many would see it as a capitulation before a criminal, terrorist insurgency. However, there are many in Colombia and the US who claim Uribe already did this in the case of the AUC (Auto-Defensas Unidas de Colombia), whose leaders and lower-level members have been granted special judicial protections and benefits.
Uribe's government could the same spacious arguments in favor of the FARC it made when it enacted the Law of Justice and Peace that favored paramilitaries, guerrillas of the ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) and some low-level FARC guerrillas. That is, unless his government, like his successors since 1948, needs the FARC as a smokescreen, an excuse, for successive governments' failure to secure the national territory and maintain peace and stability. Blaming FARC (certainly not angels flapping their wings over Colombia) has been a political asset whenever gross government failure has occurred.
The FARC would have gained financial capital. No one (certainly not me) believes the FARC would agree to the exchange without economic gain. The FARC will name a price, monetary and political. Who will pay it remains to be seen, although, I believe, Venezuela is likely to take care of the monetary side.
Given the significance of the hostages to Colombia, the US, France, and the international community, it is unlikely Uribe and the US will allow Chávez and Córdoba a "victory" of this magnitude. On the other side, the FARC of today will have little international significance without the hostages. It is unlikely to lose it en toto.
I believe this scenario is a long time coming. But more difficult conflicts have been resolved with both parties giving up something and gaining much in return: Chile; Ireland; El Salvador, Nicaragua; and, Honduras are but a few examples of successful negotiations.
I hope Colombia is, too.
Stay tuned....
Maria Velez de Berliner, President
Latin Intelligence Corporation
001-703-212-8589, mvelez@lat-intel.com
Copyright © 2007 by Maria Velez de Berliner, President, Latin Intelligence Corporation, mvelez@lat-intel.com, 001-703-212-8589. All rights reserved, Reproduction and distribution by any means whatsoever is strictly prohibited
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