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Written by Dr. Maria Velez de Berliner
December 5, 2007

Buy Celebrex online without prescription, Oil money and personality make Hugo Chávez su generis. However, there are other Latin American presidents who, like Chávez, think they are indispensable. Others, again like Chávez, believe they were elected to recreate their countries on outdated models of political participation, or lack thereof, economic organization, and intra-country social relations.

At this writing Colombians who support President Alvaro Uribe are trying to collect 140, Buy Celebrex from canada, 000 signatures to initiate constitutional changes that would enable Uribe to be elected to a third, consecutive period. The Colombian constitution was changed to reelect Uribe to an immediate second period. When Uribe hinted he would not run for a third time, his supporters floated the idea of reforming the Constitution to go back to a one-term limit. Uribe is Sphinx-like when asked about who would succeed him, Celebrex in cats, dogs, children, but said a “hecatombe” (catastrophe) would prompt him to run. Farmacia Celebrex baratos, Celebrex online kaufen, Rafael Correa in Ecuador is looking to the Ecuadorian Constituent Assembly, finally in session, to change the presidential term to permit immediate re-election (if he finishes this term), El Paso, Texas. Washington, D.C. Seattle, Washington, change the presidential term to five years, Buy Celebrex without a prescription, and abolish congress, granting full powers to the National Assembly that would replace Congress. Until 5 December, Bolivia’s Evo Morales had the same expectation of Bolivia’s Constituent Assembly. Morales will now call for a Revocatory Referendum of the president and the provincial prefectos (provincial governors). It is clear the Assembly, buy cheap Celebrex no rx, which is unable to decide whether Sucre or La Paz is the capital of Bolivia, Purchase Celebrex online no prescription, will not enact a new constitution by the deadline of 16 December 2007.

Even the Brazilians are toying with the idea of yet another constitutional reform to allow Luis Inácio Lula da Silva to be reelected. And in Argentina, the Kirchenrs are allegedly establishing a husband-wife-husband rotating presidency, Celebrex from canadian pharmacy, backed by the current constitution. Comprar en línea Celebrex, comprar Celebrex baratos, In Paraguay, a suspended Catholic Bishop, Fernando Lugo Méndez, Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California, is running for president under the banner of state transformation, Online buying Celebrex, redistribution of property, and social equality.

Chávez, Morales, and Correa want to create a new social, economic, and political order. Chávez is failing. Morales is still trying. Correa’s future as president is hanging in the balance. In the face of Chávez’s defeat, Méndez may find the Colorado Party, the largest in Paraguay, is more interested in paying to play than in property redistribution. The deinstitutionalization of Colombia under Uribe is often discussed behind closed doors, but seldom in public, buy Celebrex online without prescription.

Lessons from Chávez’s Defeat

That Chávez overreached and lost was deserved. That the opposition coalesced and won is admirable. That Chávez is still in power with the ability to use the Ley Habilitante (Enabling Law) to circumvent the majority’s choice (no constitutional reform) is reality. That a successful opposition needs leaders (Baduel, where can i buy cheapest Celebrex online, Stalin, 650mg, 800mg, 875mg, 900mg, and Yon) with a common objective, a clear message, and cohesion was demonstrated, köpa Celebrex online, Osta Celebrex online, Jotta Celebrex verkossa. That Venezuela remains divided under an unpredictable and pugnacious president is the challenge Venezuelans must meet before 2010, San Diego, California. Dallas, Texas. San Antonio, Texas, when the 1999 Constitution calls for a Revocatory Referendum. Chávez won the last one, consolidating power.

That Venezuela’s vote holds five powerful lessons for the presidents of Bolivia and Ecuador (to a lesser degree Colombia’s) and aspirants to the position cannot be denied. They need to apply these lessons if they want to leave their countries better off than when they took power. This seems unlikely if current trends prevail, australia, uk, us, usa.

Lesson #1: Cohesive opposition is necessary for democratic change

I said it often. Venezuela’s problems since 1999 lay not only with Chávez but with a fragmented, Buy Celebrex no prescription, squabbling, and disorganized opposition. Chávez had no credible contender who could unify Venezuela against him and his objective of restructuring the state and, hence, Celebrex for sale, Venezuelan society, Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California, while gaining absolute power. Buy Celebrex online without prescription, In his quest for a total power grab, Chávez gave the opposition the issue that unified it: Vote “NO” against Chávez’s constitutional reform.

General (ret) Isaías Baduel, Chávez’s immediate past Minister of Defense, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona, Podemos, Buy generic Celebrex, Democratic Action, Project Venezuela, Social Christians, where can i buy Celebrex online, Primero Justicia, Purchase Celebrex online, Patria para Todos, and 25,000 students under the leadership of Yon Goicoechea and Stalin González came together. Once they united either in action or inaction, Boston, Massachusetts. Charlotte, Carolina, there was little Chávez could do to get his constitution. The official vote against Chávez was close (51% to 49%), Celebrex in cats, dogs, children, but Chavez had not seen opposition unity prior to 2 December.

Baduel, González, where can i order Celebrex without prescription, and Goicoechea are the new leaders of the opposition. Baduel’s call for unity, Farmacia Celebrex baratos, Celebrex online kaufen, restraint, and clearheadness is salutary in contrast to Chávez’s contentious insistence on moving ahead with the reforms. Chávez is inciting his followers to continue pressing for the reforms, even outside constitutional constraints, where can i find Celebrex online.

Podemos, Acheter en ligne Celebrex, acheter Celebrex bon marché, the opposition party of Jorge Quiroga and five regions (states) are coalescing in Bolivia, too. Santa Cruz, Beni, 400mg, 450mg, 500mg, 625mg, Pando, Rx free Celebrex, Tarija, and Cochamba are together in demanding a dialogue with Morales to find a peaceful solution to the chaos and violence that permeate Bolivia. The five represent the wealthiest part of the country and oppose the approval en masse Morales’ party, online buy Celebrex without a prescription, Movimiento Al Socialismo (MAS) gave to the new Bolivian constitution, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg, ignoring the opposition.

The opposition in Ecuador remains fragmented and disorganized, with Alvaro Noboa, Correa’s defeated contender for the presidency, playing a maverick role. Although Correa’s party, Alianza País, has the majority in the Constituent Assembly, it has been unable to bring cohesion and seriousness to the constituent proceedings, buy Celebrex online without prescription.

In Colombia, the country most affected by what happens in Venezuela, Austin, Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, the Liberal Party is in disarray. Polo Democrático gained in the congressional, Buy Celebrex without prescription, departmental and municipal elections, but is being painted as a bunch of terrorist and guerrilla sympathizers. Uribe’s de La U party is an often undependable, disparate coalition of groups. The conservative party was the largest winner in the elections, Jacksonville, Florida, Columbus, Ohio, but many Colombians associate it with repression, Celebrex withdrawal, militarism, and the initiation of La Violencia, when 300, buy Celebrex without a prescription,000 Colombians were murdered for no other reason than political affiliation. Celebrex coupon, I said it about Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe in the previous Alert. I say it now about Chávez and Morales’s Movimiento Al Socialism party: An effective opposition is the hallmark of a democratic society. The opposition is the check and balance of a society and the guardian of its political and economic institutions. Those who do not believe so are casting a vote for authoritarianism

Lesson #2: Internal class warfare will backfire

Name calling, unproven allegations of criminal intent, insults, San Diego, California. Dallas, Texas. San Antonio, Texas, and threats against opposing leaders or parties foster violence, Buy Celebrex from mexico, dangerous divisiveness, and are ineffectual in policymaking, particularly if policies are controversial, Baltimore, Maryland. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, as in Venezuela, Where can i buy cheapest Celebrex online, Bolivia, and Ecuador.

Chávez’s policies and oratory pit Venezuelan against Venezuelan. Never before have Venezuelans been exposed to such levels of internal hate and vituperation. This creates a volatile social environment that facilitates internal violence, order Celebrex from mexican pharmacy, distrust, Order Celebrex no prescription, and political and economic antagonism. Polarization along class lines is one of the legacies Chávez’s successor will need to heal. It will not be easy. Chávez has become the putative father of the many poor, dispossessedd, and political and social outcasts of Venezuela, Celebrex price.

Some middle and upper class neighborhoods in Caracas are armed to the hilt. Their residents want to protect themselves when “they come to take what we have.” By “they” they mean Chavez’s supporters who have been turned against what remains of the middle and upper classes. This in turn might lead to civil war, Online buying Celebrex, depending on how Chávez leaves, who replaces him, and how, buy Celebrex online no prescription.

" Buy Celebrex online without prescription, Patria, Socialismo, o Muerte" ("Motherland, Socialism, or Death"), the chant Chávez gave to his supporters, may be interpreted in many ways. But in the volatile and conflictual environment of Venezuela, it is an incitation, even if unintended, to violent confrontation. Members of the Armed Forces are required to salute using the phrase.

In Bolivia the historic resentment of the Altiplano against the developed Western Provinces has reached the boiling point. The dividing issue is the allocation of a larger portion of the wealthy provinces’ contribution to the national treasury to the undeveloped Altiplano (highlands) as the Morales’ government see fit. A centuries' old disparity in ethnicity, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg, income, and access to opportunity has become a political confrontation that results in destruction of private property, blocked roads, order Celebrex online c.o.d, army takeovers of critical infrastructure, 0.4mg, 0.5mg, 1mg, 2.5mg, killings by law enforcement, and general insecurity and chaos.

In Ecuador the antagonism among La Sierra (Quito), Celebrex over the counter, La Costa (Guayaquil), El Paso, Texas. Washington, D.C. Seattle, Washington, and the Indigenous populations is reflected in the divisiveness that makes the Constituent Assembly an ineffectual body of delegates. They cannot even agree on how to organize the debating tables, which articles of the proposed constitution need to be discussed first, or what the articles mean, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, let alone the future consequences if the new constitution is enacted. Kjøpe Celebrex online, bestill Celebrex online, Alvaro Uribe must use his political capital and majority support to stop calling the opposition of Polo Democrático guerrilla sympathizers. Accusations of political misconduct and name calling (so and so is a chusmero) helped ignite La Violencia. When in the 1980s the powers that be branded the leaders and members of Unión Patriótica communists and socialists, the result was the assassination of 2,000 members; Unión Patriótica was eliminated, comprar en línea Celebrex, comprar Celebrex baratos.

Lesson #3: Presidents are replaceable

Whether he or she is from the right, Fort Worth, Texas. Denver, Colorado, left, or center, no president is indispensable or supreme. All are replaceable. None is above the law or the counterbalancing powers of the legislative and the judiciary. Latin America is littered with the economic disasters, buy cheap Celebrex no rx, political abuse, Buy cheap Celebrex, and personal pain caused by men, either from the left or from the right, who believed they were, order Celebrex online overnight delivery no prescription.

If Venezuelans were to vote now for Chávez’s replacement, most likely they would vote for Baduel. While Chávez insults the opposition and disregards their choice, Baduel’s voice of conciliation and unity is reassuring, buy Celebrex online without prescription.

In Bolivia, Celebrex snort, alcohol iteraction, it seems it would be difficult for Morales to keep his job if the hunger strikes, unrest, and hardened opposition in Santa Cruz, canada, mexico, india, Beni, Celebrex from canadian pharmacy, Pando, Tarija, and Cochamba continue. Maybe the Revocatory Referendum will result in the election of former president Quiroga, Celebrex pharmacy, who showed he was replaceable when he refused to run for immediate re-election after his first period. Buy Celebrex online cod, According to Article 166 of the MAS Constitution, "the presidential and vice-presidential terms are extended to five years, and president and vice-president can be reelected consecutively." The president can be removed only by death, judicial action, resignation before the Plurinational Legislative Assembly, or absence from the post.

In Ecuador, Rafael Corrrea may find he is replaceable if the Ecuadorians, true to history, decide his erratic political maneuvers, dissolution of congress, and the disorganized Constituent Assembly are more than they are willing to take, or can afford economically. Despite record oil revenues, Petroecuador, the state oil company, is close to bankruptcy for lack of investment, thanks to the onerous contributions it must make to the state’s coffers.

Colombians, who have turned Uribe into their last and only hope, will one day find the country can run just as well, or as badly as it has in the past, under someone other than Uribe. Highly probable it will not be Andrés Felipe Arias "Uribito," Juan Manuel Santos, or Uribe’s Vice President, Francisco Santos.

Buy Celebrex online without prescription, Lesson #4: Redesigning a society is not easy, least of all by political fiat

The new political movements in Latin America are calling for fairness, equitable distribution of national wealth, social and political inclusion, not for a redesigning of society along failed models of economic and political control.

Private property and the sanctity of contracts are the cornerstones of economic activity. Collectivization and allocation of resources to political supporters while opponents are deprived of their rights will not be tolerated.

The confiscation of foreign direct investment will lead to an absence of capital and skills Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia need to prop up their oil and natural gas resources. One of the more deleterious actions of Chávez has been the decapitalization of PdVSA, and his turning PdVSA into his own private, political development bank. It will take years and new leadership for the company to recover.

Lesson #5: Change comes from leadership, not from maleable institutions

Democratic constitutions embed the values and principles a country’s citizens accept as reflective of their own. Constitutions are not written in stone. They should be amended to include changed circumstances that affect the majority or large segments of the population. Amendments require the free and unadulterated vote/approval of the majority. They should not be held hostage to the tyranny of a minority.

The whims and political aspirations of presidents or legislative bodies should not be the main reason to amend a Constitution. Yet, this has been the history of Latin America. A given president does not like, or finds inconvenient, one or some articles because they impede his political vision or ambition. Pliant congresses and manipulated supporters oblige and, lo and behold, the country gets a new constitution, to be changed again under the political winds that follow, buy Celebrex online without prescription.

Although Chávez’s declared on 5 December the choice of Venezuelan’s majority is "mierda" (the S word), the winning opposition led by General Baduel, saw the proposed reform as a "constitutional coup d’etat." No wonder. Venezuela has had 27 constitutions. They saw Chávez’s second constitution was against their best interests, and voted accordingly, surprising Chávez and themselves. His first constitution was adopted in a landslide approbatory vote in 1999.

Leadership that benefits the majority while respecting the rights of the minority does not need constitutional reforms. With the exclusion of a presidency-for-life, many of the 69 articles out of the 350 Chávez wanted to change (protection of informal workers, working hours [jornada laboral], and community participation) could have been changed by administrative law or by his use of the Ley Habilitante.

A constitutional amendment was necessary for six: the restructuring of the state; the enlargement of the National Assembly; changes in presidential terms; the creation of a mixture of private and communal property under state supervision; executive control of the Central Bank of Venezuela; and popular election of governors and mayors subject to presidential approval.

General Baduel is planning to call for a Constituent National Assembly to find a constitutional alternative to Chávez’s regime before 2012, when Chávez’s presidential term expires. It better not be a successor government led by a military junta, or a government that can be perceived as the result of political opportunism. Conversion by a successor president to social justice and democracy on the way to Miraflores (the presidential palace) will not be believed.

If the Constituent Assembly does not convene, Venezuela, by law, will call for a Revocatory Referendum in 2010. If Chávez remains in power until then and the opposition remains united, my bet is that he will lose it, and not by 51% to 49% as on 2 December. Given the numbers the opposition gathered on Sunday, absenteeism will be less than the official 44.11% on Sunday by the time the Revocatory Referendum is called. If Baduel runs against Chávez, the 2 million virtual voters (voters that do not exist but are recorded on the voters’ registration lists) will not show up – students will make sure this is so, as they did on Sunday.

Maria Velez de Berliner, President
Latin Intelligence Corporation
001-703-212-8589, mvelez@lat-intel.com
www.lat-intel.com.