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Latin Intelligence Corporation gives you current, actionable, and verifiable intelligence on political, economic, and cultural risks in Latin America. We help you identify the risks you might face so that you can prepare for and manage them.

Our customized research and analyses enable you to make informed decisions as to why, where, with whom, and how you operate in the region, profitably and safely. We serve intelligence and security companies, private industry, financial institutions, investment and capital management firms, and departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

Archived Reports Archived Reports Regional Focus ©

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Written by Dr. Maria Velez de Berliner
December 5, 2007

Summary


Buy Ventolin online without prescription, Our clients often hear me say, “Latin America is not for the faint of heart.”  Those who work in or with the region know it:  There is never a dull moment.  Even in the best of times, Latin America represents political risks.  Protecting against them requires vigilance, preparation, and an intimate knowledge of the region’s history and modus operandi. This should be based preferably on what the locals know, Buy Ventolin without a prescription, not on what one thinks is going on or believes would be best for Latin America.  



Despite intra-regional defense, trade, and cooperation agreements, canada, mexico, india, Latin America remains a geographical aggregation of diverse and challenging countries that often defy and confound analysts.  But, Farmacia Ventolin baratos, Ventolin online kaufen, despite its challenges and ups and downs, Latin America offers plenty of profitable opportunity for those who understand its risks and have the time, patience, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona, and economic resources necessary to manage them safely. 



Those who believe elections and free markets build democracy in Latin America do so at their own peril.  I believe the rise of nationalist movements that have toppled governments and redirect legislation on natural resources ownership, Where can i order Ventolin without prescription, contracts, and property rights is here to stay.  These movements are using democratic means, such as elections, japan, craiglist, ebay, hcl, to further their agenda, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, but democratic they are not.  The expected departure of Hugo Chávez from power in Venezuela will not change this.  The specter of Chavismo in one form or another will continue to hunt Latin America’s democratic governments for years to come.



Covered:



  1. Work in or with the Latin America that is, not the one you want to have

  2. Listen to the locals and follow their lead

  3. Doing business in troubled waters





Our clients often hear me say, buy cheap Ventolin, “Latin America is not for the faint of heart.”  Those who work in or with the region know it:  There is never a dull moment.  Even in the best of times, Ventolin price, Latin America represents political risks.  Protecting against them requires vigilance, preparation, and an intimate knowledge of the region’s history and modus operandi, order Ventolin from mexican pharmacy. This should be based preferably on what the locals know, Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California, not on what one thinks is going on or believes would be best for Latin America.  



Despite intra-regional defense, trade, and cooperation agreements, online buy Ventolin without a prescription, Latin America remains a geographical aggregation of diverse and challenging countries that often defy and confound analysts.  But, Purchase Ventolin online, despite its challenges and ups and downs, Latin America offers plenty of profitable opportunity for those who understand its risks and have the time, patience, purchase Ventolin online no prescription, and economic resources necessary to manage them safely. 



Those who believe elections and free markets build democracy in Latin America do so at their own peril.  I believe the rise of nationalist movements that have toppled governments and redirect legislation on natural resources ownership, Ventolin coupon, contracts, and property rights is here to stay.  These movements are using democratic means, such as elections, online buying Ventolin, to further their agenda, Ventolin for sale, but democratic they are not.  The expected departure of Hugo Chávez from power in Venezuela will not change this.  The specter of Chavismo in one form or another will continue to hunt Latin America’s democratic governments for years to come.



For better or worse, Chávez gave voice to about 225 million Latin Americans who live with earnings under US$2/day.  They will not be silenced.  Their demands for social justice and equitable distribution of national wealth will threaten democratic security, online buy Ventolin without a prescription.



Therefore, how does one protect against and handle political risk in Latin America?  Here are some suggestions, buy Ventolin online without prescription.


Work in or with the Latin America that is, Buy Ventolin online no prescription, not the one you want to have



It is erroneous to assume that because there has not been a successful military coup in Latin America in the last ten years, Latin America’s governments are neat, well-oiled democratic machines.  They are not and may not ever be.  Open, buy Ventolin no prescription, fairly untainted elections of the type Latin America has had in the last 10 years do not democracies make. 



With the exception of Cuba and Venezuela, Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California, Latin American governments are what one might call democratic.  Argentina, Chile, and Brazil represent a light left, Jacksonville, Florida, Columbus, Ohio, similar to the Social Democratic parties of Europe. Ventolin pharmacy,



But even in Chile, the Latin country most similar to the US or Switzerland, democracy is an untidy affair.  Throughout Latin America, buy Ventolin without prescription, democracy is shaped by strong labor unions whose support of the government can be volatile.  The owners and executives of some powerful and endogenous multinational companies are often more powerful than the president of the day.  National congresses are regularly beholden to special interests, Buy cheap Ventolin, if not the personal or familial interests of the members of Congress, or to criminal groups, as in Colombia, purchase Ventolin online, since the rise of the drug and paramilitary cartels.  The rise of nationalist, Ventolin samples, indigenous movements that can bring presidents down and paralyze entire countries, as in Bolivia, Argentina, Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee. Portland, Oregon, and Ecuador in the early 2000s are increasing power and influence.   



Protests and strikes brought down Bolivia’s president, Where can i order Ventolin without prescription, Gonzalo Sánchez de Losada, and paralyzed the country at the end of 2003.  They may well push Evo Morales, Losada’s successor, købe Ventolin online, αγοράζουν online Ventolin, out of power by the political revolt of the Western provinces that oppose Morales.  Piqueteros (Argentina’s organized protesters) put in power three different presidents within a single year and stopped businesses throughout Argentina during the economic debacle of 2002-2003.  They remain a daily fixture of political life.  They may yet take to the streets against Cristina Kirchner when she has to raise utility rates, New York. Los Angeles, California, repay foreign debt, and restrain pension payments. Chávez’s Bolivarian Circles will cause trouble aplenty for his successor, 400mg, 450mg, 500mg, 625mg.



Keep in mind that Latin American governments have historically followed a policy of “order before all else.”  Therefore, Ventolin coupon, if a democratic government does meet national expectations, and disappointment leads to disorder, the military is likely to be called in to reestablish order.  This proclivity gave rise to Chile’s Pinochet, where can i find Ventolin online, Venezuela’s Marcos, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg,   Colombia’s Rojas Pinilla, the murderous military juntas of Argentina and Brazil, Trujillo en the Dominican Republic, Baltimore, Maryland. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Somoza in Nicaragua, 0.4mg, 0.5mg, 1mg, 2.5mg, and other unsavory dictators of the past.  The need for order makes Colombians overlook the serious flaws in President Uribe’s administration because his militarist solutions to Colombian’s problems give the impression of citizens’ security.   Resorting to the military is a characteristic of the traditional elites, who do not hesitate to pass on to the military the problems they created with their misguided policies when in power. Buy Ventolin online without prescription, Bolivia’s Evo Morales is the first indigenous president ever elected in Latin America’s history, without the military on the streets. 



The most remarkable happening of the last ten years is the absence of a true military coup even during the Argentinean economic debacle.  True, the military was called in to establish order in Bolivia in the last four months, but the deployment was local, not at a national level to depose the president.  The military junta that took power in Ecuador two years ago relinquished power to a civil government within two months. When some segments of the military tried to bring down an unpopular Chávez, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, General Isaías Baduel, Japan, craiglist, ebay, hcl, with the approval of all Latin America, engineered Chávez’s return to power.



However, acheter en ligne Ventolin, acheter Ventolin bon marché, the actions Chávez is taking after his electoral defeat on 2 December mean the likelihood of a military coup is high in Venezuela today.  



Latin America does not today have military governments, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona, but it does have tolerance for what many say is a need for paternalistic, authoritarian governments.  For example, despite having left it in disgrace and returned as a criminal, australia, uk, us, usa, many Peruvians would today vote for Alberto Fujimori because he reduced crippling inflation, Buy no prescription Ventolin online, introduced sound economic policy, and conquered the instability and insecurity caused by the guerrilla group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path). The resurgence of Sendero in the last four years will increase support for Fujimori were he found innocent, order Ventolin from mexican pharmacy. It is known that Fujimori wants to return to the presidency of Peru.   



Given this, Ventolin withdrawal, don’t expect Latin America’s politics to behave like its counterpart in the US, for it will not.  Latin America lacks the legal structure and the well-off economic machinery that underpins US democracy and its political process.  Even during a downward economy, politics in the US remains stable. 


Listen to the locals and follow their lead  



What do you do when you confront this political mine field, rx free Ventolin. Do you decide not to do business in Latin America and forego the opportunities in a market next door to the USA, where most of the managerial class of today is educated in the USA and/or the European Union?  A market where if you are not there you are leaving dollars on the table for China, Japan, India, the European Union, and the Middle East, buy Ventolin online without prescription.



No.  You do what the Chinese, 1000mg, 2000mg, Japanese, and Indians do:  follow the locals, accept, where can i buy Ventolin online, and respect the ways in which the Latin Americans govern themselves and do business.  And this does not mean paying money under the table.  In the 26 years I have spent doing business in the region, Boston, Massachusetts. Charlotte, Carolina, neither I nor my associates have paid for a single order or contract.  The reason is:  we know how to navigate the troubled waters.  Latin Americans have been doing business in their way for over 500 years.  They will continue to do so no matter what you think or expect of them. But you can’t deny that they have prospered. Otherwise they would still be under Spain’s and Portugal’s rule, buy Ventolin online cod.


Doing business in troubled waters 



To begin, Kjøpe Ventolin online, bestill Ventolin online, I suggest you accept the Latin America that is, not the one you want to have or the one you read about in the foreign press or see in the movies.  Read the local dailies, industry journals, Austin, Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, and business publications.  Talk to the locals.  Don’t preach good governance to them; they will respond by pointing to the flaws in yours. Buy Ventolin online without prescription, Listen. Buy Ventolin from mexico, The media and the people will give you the locals’ assessment of the political and economic situation as is. If you are not fluent in Spanish or Portuguese, you would be wise to find someone you trust who is, order Ventolin online overnight delivery no prescription. He or she should be able to give you the political translation you need, Ventolin price, without diluting the truth of the situation. You need to know what you need to know, not what you might want to hear. 



Believe what the locals tell you – they are the ones who have their fingers on the pulse of the country.  They have been there longer than you have, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Las Vegas, Nevada. They know from hard-won experience that this too shall pass – whatever the “this” might be, buy Ventolin online without prescription. Venezuelans and Bolivians know that, Fort Worth, Texas. Denver, Colorado, no matter how bad it gets, they will have a country after Chávez and Morales go.  



Trust the survival instinct, hard work, reasons to buy Ventolin online, and entrepreneurship of the Latin Americans.  Unlike what most foreigners expect, Ventolin over the counter, this is not the land of mañana (tomorrow). Most people in Latin America today have two or three jobs just to make ends meet.  They are resourceful and dedicated.  If this were not so, how could country after country have survived 500 years of ineffectual and corrupt governments, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg, public and private corruption, Canada, mexico, india, and all sorts of political chicanery?   



Here is an example of how to listen to the locals.  In 1999 I was advising a company doing business in Brazil.  I ignored the rosy predictions the US government was making about the economic performance of Brazil during the second term of President Fernando Enrique Cardoso.  Instead, I kept my ears on what the local business community was saying in Brazil.  “Devaluation” was the word they most used.  By following the “local” prediction, I was able to convince my client to down gear the Brazilian strategy they were pursuing ahead of the devaluation.  They moved resources to less risky markets, Ventolin snort, alcohol iteraction, but their competitors in Brazil did not fare as well.  The client’s expanded markets in other countries compensated for reduced business in Brazil. 



I followed the same formula in evaluating political risk in Argentina. Buy generic Ventolin, When the piqueteros took to the streets against their country’s economic miracle of privatization under the guidance of the failed Washington Consensus, I advised the same client to pack and go. How did I know to pull out ahead of the economic tsunami, order Ventolin no prescription. Buy Ventolin online without prescription, I knew that billions of dollars from the privatization rush had not entered the national coffers.  There was no reinvestment and no innovation, just fondos golondrina – speculative capital. Excellent companies had been privatized at below market value. Order Ventolin online c.o.d, More so, Argentines could no longer afford to pay US$30 for three alfajores (cookies). All this told me the economy was on borrowed time. I could not have known this without listening and paying attention to what regular Argentines were complaining about on a daily basis.  



When the demise of Venezuela’s PDVSA was said to be a sure thing after the labor strikes that paralyzed the company in 2003 and early 2004, and the dismissal by Chávez of 20,000 professionals, I knew Chávez could not do without PDVSA.  Chávez could not have survived without a company that accounts for about 40% of Venezuela’s GDP and about 60% of its exports.  Indeed, Chávez’s power has risen in direct correlation to the world price of oil and the revenues of PDVSA.  In fact, PDVSA’s earnings enable Chávez to make the company its own political and economic development bank.



The future of PDVSA is Chávez’s future, too. Both are in decline, buy Ventolin online without prescription. PDVSA because of decapitalization, and Chávez because of hubris.



And what about Brazil and President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva. I don’t believe Brazil will amend the constitution to enable Lula to run for a third consecutive time. However, all political parties in Brazil have been tarnished by the Mensalão and sundry scandals, particularly Lula’s PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores). The Mensalão Buy Ventolin online without prescription, removed from office some of Lula’s trusted collaborators and architects of Lula’s orthodox market economy and political administration.



Therefore, if you are doing business in Brazil, find out from Brazilians who they believe will be Lula’s replacement.  If the improbable happens and Lula can run to win a third term,  you will know who the competition is and what its agenda is.  This is crucial because laws prohibit legislators to switch party allegiances in the middle of legislative debates.  However, they continue to do so.   Brazil’s presidents often override Congress by resorting to Medidas Provisorias (MPs), temporary laws.  If a law is difficult to pass in Congress, the president enacts an MP, the law goes into effect, and Congress and the president move on to the next item in the legislative agenda.  No MP has been revoked so far.



Mexico under Vicente Fox, a darling of the foreign press, proved I was right when I told a client Fox would have a hard time reforming Mexico and its political system.  I said, “One thing is to manage Coca-Cola de México and another to govern México under NAFTA and with the PRI in the opposition.”  The client did not believe and replied, “democracy has finally come to México.”



The key to my reasoning was that Fox had risen to prominence by managing, with great success, a US company in México – Coca-Cola.  Most US successful managers have a great deal of control and influence; they have little or no experience in negotiating with the diverse groups and interests that form a country, albeit one as economically unequal as México.  Therefore, President Fox lacked the give-and-take that would be required to bring the PRI under the President’s tent.  What happened?  Fox was unable to deliver on his promise to reform Mexico.  In 2006, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) almost became Mexico’s president under the banner of the PRD (Partido de la Revolución Democrática).  It took one month for Felipe Calderón to be confirmed as president.  The reality is not that Calderón defeated AMLO (electoral fraud is still debated); AMLO defeated himself when he decided to challenge a constitutional transition, flawed as it was.



Calderón now needs the PRI and the PRD to reform the constitution so that Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) can be modernized. Will this happen. No, buy Ventolin online without prescription. Oil ownership is at the heart of every Mexican, although each knows PEMEX is crippled by corruption, union power, and mismanagement. Therefore, if you are interested in doing business in Mexico’s energy sector, follow the laws passed by congress with the approval of the PRI and the PRD. This will tell you how much power Calderón has and what to expect in energy sector legislation. 



If you have difficulty in being flexible, if you need neatly packaged certainties, and if the prospect of adapting to change makes you run for a Nexium® pill, Latin America’s political influence on the business sector is not for you.  



Based on my 26 years of experience doing business in Latin America, I hope you use your knowledge of Latin American politics to mitigate the risks by evaluating the situation from the Latin Americans’ perspective, not yours.


You should be ready to change course quickly.



No matter how great politics is going in the Latin American country where my clients are working, I always ask this question:  “What do we need to do should this situation change?”  By answering it from many local perspectives, our clients are able to remain ahead of political changes because they have prepared for them ahead of time so their risk can be minimized, or avoided.



Until next time. Hasta Luego y Buena Suerte. Até Logo e Boa Sorte. 



Maria Velez de Berliner, President, Latin Intelligence Corporation

mvelez@lat-intel.com; Tel: 001-703-212-8589; www.lat-intel.com



 



Due to Holiday schedules in Latin America, next posting will be on 10-12 January 2008. 



 


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