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Written by Dr. Maria Velez de Berliner
October 13, 2008

(This is the first in a series of analyses on how changing economic conditions worldwide might affect the pré-sals exploration and commercialization.)

The global financial crisis and the consequent credit crunch and decline in effective demand will affect the level of investment in the installed capacity needed to explore and commercialize the pré-sal.  The pré-sal Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, requires capital investments and technology innovations seldom seen in the oil and gas industry.

It is now clear that capital markets will not be what they were in the last 10 years.

Regulated markets, once the curse of Latin America, 650mg, 800mg, 875mg, 900mg, are becoming the norm in the industrialized economies.  Brazil and Latin America will suffer economic and political repercussions from the economic downturn.   How the region, with Brazil in the lead, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Las Vegas, Nevada, handles them will have profound consequences on the security of contracts, investments, and critical infrastructure in the region’s energy sector.

The fall in oil prices (from US$140.00 in April to under US$80.00 in early October) brings into question the viability of new refining capacity.  But Brazil must continue the development of the pré-sal for its own energy independence and security, Austin, Texas, Memphis, Tennessee. And, possibly, Where can i buy Lotrisone online, for the political stability of the region.

Characteristics of the Pré-sal


The pré-sal oil area is 800 kilometers long, 200-400 kilometers wide, 350 kilometers off shore, and 2,000-7,000 feet from the waterline to the seabed subsoil.  It runs from Espíritu Santo to Santa Catarina, incorporating Bacia de Santos and Bacia de Campos, buy Lotrisone online without prescription.

It has estimated reserves of 40-80bb in Santos and Campos alone.  Optimists claim reserves might be 330bb, and Brazil could expect revenues of US$5 trillion.  Some still believe exploration of the pré-sal is viable even if oil falls to US$40/b.  But the costs of installed capacity would need to fall, too.  This might happen as construction of new refineries, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, pipelines, and distribution centers declines in response to falling oil prices. Order Lotrisone from mexican pharmacy, However, access to and ownership of oil and gas resources remain pivotal factors in the world economy.  They are crucial to Brazil’s sustained growth.  World demand is falling, but demand exists.  It has to be met.  Oil is its motor, no matter the price, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg. This will work to Brazil’s advantage and disadvantage.  Advantage because it will have the time to develop the technological innovations the geological formation of the pré-sal demands.  Disadvantage because capital will cost more, leading to a slower pace of development. 400mg, 450mg, 500mg, 625mg, The rush to the pré-sal has been breathtaking.  A pause will enable Brazil’s congress to think through the full implications of changing Petroleum Law 9.478, of 6 August 1997 to create Petrosal, a new oil company, change the position of Petrobras in bidding, buy generic Lotrisone, and modify contract on royalties, ownership of resources, Köpa Lotrisone online, Osta Lotrisone online, Jotta Lotrisone verkossa, and concessions. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, It is not the future of Petrobras that Brazil’s congress is debating.  Nor is it the future of Petrosal.  It is the future of Brazil among the leading energy producing countries that is at stake.

The end of 2008 expects changes in Law 9.478.  However, it might take longer given the paucity of congressional decisions. The creation of Petrosal may fall to the new president and congress to be elected in 2010.  It took Congress three years to create Petrobras in 1953, Lotrisone withdrawal, and four years to privatize it in 1997.

Whether now or in the future, Order Lotrisone no prescription, Brazil needs to overcome exploratory and technical, managerial, and regulatory challenges to bring the pré-sal reserves online.  The fields of Tupí, Carioca, purchase Lotrisone online, Jubarte, and Júpiter are under preliminary exploration, Purchase Lotrisone online no prescription, or are already in the commercialization phase.  But a lot remains as exploration reaches deeper into the  seabed subsoil.

Exploratory and Technical Challenges


Its geological formation is the major exploratory challenge of the pré-sal.  Exploration will require drills to go through 2,000-plus kilometers of water and cut through two kilometers of rock and sediment, and two kilometers of fluid salt.  Bids for only 31% (about 35, rx free Lotrisone,000 kilometers) of the pré-sal have been granted to exploration companies, including Petrobras. The remaining 62% (122,000 kilometers) will fall under Petrosal, buy Lotrisone online without prescription. Where can i find Lotrisone online, UBS estimated in 2007 Brazil would need US$600bn over 30 years to explore and bring online 50bb of reserves.  Petrobras alone will spend US$5.2bn in the coming three years exploring blocks allocated to it: 93% in improving and upgrading current equipment; 3% in maintenance; and, 3% in safety and environmental protection.

Petrobras will invest US$112bn up to 2012 in new equipment: 40 specialty drills; 42 tankers; 146 support ships; and, long-range helicopters, Fort Worth, Texas. Denver, Colorado. The company plans to bid 55 ultra-deep water drills by 2015; 28 will be Brazil-built. As of now, Where can i order Lotrisone without prescription, only P-51 is Brazilian-made. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, Norway will deliver the West Taurus, the world’s first ultra-deep water semi-submersible drill, in November 2008.  Two more units will arrive in 2010-2011.  The Taurus can bore down to 10,000 feet, going to 37,500 feet, if necessary, with some adaptations. Given its size, Petrobras will need joint venture partners to supply this installed capacity, or help it produce it in Brazil, Lotrisone for sale.

Managerial Challenges


The current down market may prevent Petrobras from hiring the 4,000 new employees it planned in the coming four years, Buy Lotrisone online cod, to reach 14,000 new hires by 2012.  But new hiring will continue because the company needs to increase its technical skills pool. There are not sufficient petroleum engineers, laboratory technicians, Lotrisone price, and specialized workers in Brazil.  Many will come from abroad, for Brazil’s are the world’s major oil and gas discoveries in years. Jacksonville, Florida, Columbus, Ohio, The oil industry accounts for 10% of Brazil’s GDP.  Its growth will slow but will not stop.  Brazil is now a veritable last frontier in accessible oil reserves, in a stable political and economic environment.  In security and instability it beats Venezuela, Russia and Africa in attractiveness to foreign direct investors.

The integration of new managers, technicians, operators and laborers will demand new training and development programs, retention schemes, and changes in the length of offshore rotations, buy Lotrisone online without prescription.

Foreign workers, buy generic Lotrisone, if allowed given the national character of the industry, will need acculturation programs and relocation support.  However, Comprar en línea Lotrisone, comprar Lotrisone baratos, they will increase tensions, particularly if foreign investors are obliged to comply with higher wages and stricter labor standards in their home countries while they work in Brazil.  Nationals might see conformity to others’ labor standards as preferential treatment of foreigners at a time of economic uncertainty.

Technical vacancies in Petrobras and Brazil’s 1,500 related companies will be an incentive for foreign workers to move to Brazil.  Working in Brazil’s E&P will become more attractive with fewer employment opportunities in other countries due to a fall in world demand and legal wrangling, buy Lotrisone without a prescription, as in Russia, Venezuela, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, and Nigeria.

An influx of foreign workers or new entrants will force the Ministry of Labor to introduce reforms in labor law. Brazil’s labor inflexibility is a major drawback to Petrobras and to the industry. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, Most oil and gas service providers and contractors who operate in Brazil will tell you labor and union rules are a disincentive. Petrobras has averted two major strikes over health benefits, Lotrisone from canadian pharmacy, wages, and pensions in the last three months. Order Lotrisone online overnight delivery no prescription, Retention policies will be crucial.  Petrobras’ average duration of employment is seven years.  The complex environment in which workers will function at the pré-sal requires continuity. Otherwise, turnover costs will escalate due to staff retraining and the normal downtime of new hires as they move up the learning curve.

Regulatory Challenges


Minister of Energy Edison Lobão said recently, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Las Vegas, Nevada, “O petróleo é do povo; não das empresas.” ("The oil belongs to the people; not to the companies.”)

Nothing indicates Brazil will establish nationalistic policies on oil and gas, or any other industry, Where can i buy Lotrisone online, similar to those of Russia, Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, buy Lotrisone without prescription, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Baltimore, Maryland. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, or Honduras.  However, it is likely to enact changes in contracts on royalties, concessions, and compensation, Lotrisone coupon.

There will also be changes in bidding processes and regulations, buy Lotrisone online without prescription. Already joint ventures in the pré-sal require Brazilian ownership of over 50%.

Tighter standards of quality and performance, Lotrisone in cats, dogs, children, availability, and delivery will apply to vendors and service suppliers.

No one knows what the final structure of Petrosal will be. It seems Petrobras, buy Lotrisone no prescription, despite being the world’s leader in deep water exploration, will be a treated as any other company bidding for the pré-sal. Petrobras will bid against competitors for blocks in the pré-sal.  It will not receive special consideration or prerogatives. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, But, it will retain the inside track and the in-country competitive advantage necessary for successful bidding. El Paso, Texas. Washington, D.C. Seattle, Washington, Therefore, foreign direct investors would be wise to team up with Petrobras.

Economic Challenges


As president Luis Inácio Lula (Lula) da Silva said recently, “God has given a new opportunity to Brazil, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg, not to act foolishly, but to exploit its [pré-sal] oil riches wisely and profitably.”

Despite advanced seismic analyses, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona, the difference between estimated reserves and proven oil deposits is a constant uncertainty in the oil industry. No one knows for sure what a well will produce until drilling begins and oil comes from the ground, or in this case, the ocean’s bed, 400mg, 450mg, 500mg, 625mg. Sometimes water or ultra heavy oil is the result of costly exploration and investment.

Brazil’s structural changes in macroeconomics in the last 16 years, its influence in the world economy (witness the demise of the Doha Round), and its position as the balancing actor in Latin America are reassuring to investors.  Brazil and Chile are the only two countries in Latin America likely to weather the world’s downturn better than most, buy Lotrisone online without prescription.

Brazil received US$35b in FDI in 2007.   Since no alternative energy has yet replaced oil in quantity and availability, Lotrisone withdrawal, the pré-sal will remain a magnet for FDI in energy in Brazil, albeit at lower rates of investment.

Brazil and Latin America will benefit from the economic and innovation multipliers the pré-sal will have.  The need for innovative technologies for E&P, light and anticorrosive materials for risers and pipelines, Austin, Texas, Memphis, Tennessee, motors, equipment, Japan, craiglist, ebay, hcl, seismographic analyses, terminals, and other materials, processes, Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California, and services has the potential to spur R&D intra-regionally.  Nanotechnology advances in resistance of materials, weight, Buy Lotrisone from mexico, and durability,  and in composites, are ideal to fulfill the needs of the pré-sal.

Engineering schools and independent laboratories can team up with CENPES, buy cheap Lotrisone, Petrobras’ research center, to develop applications transferable from the pré-sal to ultra-deep areas that might be found in locations other than Brazil. Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California, This approach will be a solution to the paucity of patent applications in Brazil and the region.  Patents are a rough, but dependable, measure of a country’s innovative stock and entrepreneurship. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, Brazil and Latin America have excellent computation and software developers who emigrate to more creative markets for lack of in-country opportunities. Petrobras and Brazil’s National Petroleum Agency (ANP) can stop the brain drain by establishing research centers where creativity and innovation flourish, buy no prescription Lotrisone online.

The pré-sal will make Brazil a major purchaser of installed capacity in the industry.  Proximity to Brazil will increase the competitiveness of Latin America’s products and services.

Political Consequences


Brazil has proven to be an adroit player in the global economy and a political balancer in South America, Buy Lotrisone from canada, blunting Chavez’s influence in the region without stridency or direct confrontation.  And when called, to mediate among disputatious governments, such as Colombia and Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador, australia, uk, us, usa, and Bolivia and its Media Luna region.

President Lula has performed a high-wire act of tact, Reasons to buy Lotrisone online, diplomacy, and firmness.  He has kept Hugo Chavez’s expansion of his Bolivarian Revolution at bay through mediation and negotiation.  And non-intervention in other countries’ affairs, unless called to do so.

The pré-sal’s most durable effect will be political.  Unintentionally, the economic success of the pré-sal will undermine the socialist interventions of  Chavez in the region.  It will blunt the nationalist and autarkic policies of Evo Morales in Bolivia.  It will deal a blow to Correa’s nationalization and confiscatory decrees in Ecuador.  It will diminish Chavez’s influence in Nicaragua, Honduras, Cuba, and some Caribbean Islands.  Neither president is likely to be in power when the pré-sal is fully online, buy Lotrisone online without prescription. But it is affecting their stature, 0.4mg, 0.5mg, 1mg, 2.5mg, if any, and their influence in the region. Online buy Lotrisone without a prescription, A self-sufficient and energy independent Brazil will no longer need natural gas from Bolivia to run 20% of its industry.  It also means Petrobras will not need to invest in Bolivia, under confiscatory laws, to ensure delivery of Bolivia’s gas to Brazil. Alone or with joint-venture partners, 1000mg, 2000mg, Petrobras and Petrosal, if created, San Diego, California. Dallas, Texas. San Antonio, Texas, will supply all the oil and natural gas Brazil needs.  Brazil could export to Argentina and Chile, undermining Bolivia’s energy stronghold on Argentina, and on Chile through Argentina.

President Lula said recently Brazil will sell oil and gas to whoever wants it and in the quantities requested.  Therefore, farmacia Lotrisone baratos, Lotrisone online kaufen, the pré-sal will produce the oil, gas, Where can i buy cheapest Lotrisone online, and revenue needed to build the pipeline infrastructure that will integrate Latin America’s energy.  Brazil, following its self-restraint in intra-regional affairs, will build it without threats and grandstanding. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, Brazil will also build respecting the constraints geography and topography place upon it.

Chavez’s Gran Gasoducto del Sur remains mired in controversy.  The Gasoducto would run over 8, buy Lotrisone online no prescription,000-15,000 kilometers from south Venezuela (Puerto Ordaz) to northern Argentina, Köpa Lotrisone online, Osta Lotrisone online, Jotta Lotrisone verkossa, running through Brazil and Uruguay to Argentina.  It would cost about US$23bn, which Venezuela does not now have. Therefore, Brazil’s plans to build shorter lengths of pipeline that hook to existing lines seems more reasonable and manageable to achieve energy integration.  It is ironic that Chavez, Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee. Portland, Oregon, who saw the Gasoducto as the conduit to strengthen his  “petrodollar diplomacy,” may be history when integration occurs.  Instead, Lotrisone samples, Brazil is likely to do the job, slowly but surely, without antagonizing anyone and without muscling in to impose a vision on what Latin America should be on the countries it helps.

Brazil will also be able to supply Central American and Caribbean countries with oil, Lotrisone snort, alcohol iteraction, thus replacing Chavez’s oil diplomacy through PetroCaribe.  Brazil might not give the cheap deals Chavez gave these countries.  However, Brazil’s agreements will come without strings attached.  BNDES, Lotrisone over the counter, which is likely to have a pré-sal fund, will be able to create special credit lines for countries in need of cheap energy.

The transfer of Brazil’s energy know-how and expertise throughout the region will raise the skills pool.  It will modernize the industry, increasing its ROI to domestic and foreign investors.  In this way Brazil will contribute to the creation of opportunity and advancement where other governments fail in this basic responsibility, Lotrisone pharmacy.

In part in response to the future of the pré-sal and Brazil’s potential independence and leadership in the oil and gas industry, Chavez has attracted energy investments from Russia, China, and Iran.  However, none has the expertise, professionalism, intra-regional advantage, and international position Petrobras has, buy Lotrisone online without prescription.

Petrodollars and a waning nationalistic appeal have kept Chavez in power.  The results of the November 2008 gubernatorial and municipal elections will be a reliable indicator of how long Chavez might last in power.  Were he to fall, Petrobras and Brazil will be the ready and willing neighbors to help PDVSA rebuild.  A new Venezuelan government is likely to reverse many of Chavez’s agreements, Acheter en ligne Lotrisone, acheter Lotrisone bon marché, more so if they are seen as potentially destabilizing to the region, such as those with Russia and Iran.

Bolivia’s Morales has his hands full with the civil revolt in the Media Luna (the provinces of Pando, Santa Cruz, købe Lotrisone online, αγοράζουν online Lotrisone, Beni, and Tarija), Bolivia’s center of the hydrocarbons industry.  Chavez provides materiel, personnel, intelligence, and money to Morales’ government. This has polarized the armed forces and divided the country, more than ever, into the wealthy Media Luna and the poor Altiplano.  The violent encounters, closing of roads, destruction of public infrastructure and private property hurt hydrocarbons production and, therefore, Bolivia’s GDP.  FDI, which Bolivia needs, is down to a trickle.  Some investments promised by Chavez have not materialized.

A weakened Chavez may open the road for Bolivia to go back to selling gas to Brazil, Argentina, and to Chile through Argentina, marked to market, and dependably. Buy Lotrisone online without prescription, Lack of dependability on Bolivia’s supplies lies at the heart of the projected reactivation of nuclear energy projects in Brazil and Argentina.  Chile’s decision to consider nuclear energy stems from Bolivia’s unreliability.

Conclusion


Despite the current, worldwide economic downturn, bringing the pré-sal online will place Brazil as an international leader in the oil and gas industry, and cement its influence in the world economy.

By depriving Chavez’s socialist revolution and Morales’ nationalistic push of their trump cards, petrodollars and gas sales, Brazil will consolidate its position as the peaceful and effective balancer of economic and political interests in Latin America.

(A second update will be posted en early November.)

By Dr. Maria Velez de Berliner
President, Latin Intelligence Corporation
mvelez@lat-intel.com; www.lat-intel.com.

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