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Latin Intelligence Corporation gives you current, actionable, and verifiable intelligence on political, economic, and cultural risks in Latin America. We help you identify the risks you might face so that you can prepare for and manage them.

Our customized research and analyses enable you to make informed decisions as to why, where, with whom, and how you operate in the region, profitably and safely. We serve intelligence and security companies, private industry, financial institutions, investment and capital management firms, and departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

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Written by Dr. Maria Velez de Berliner
February 21, 2009

This is an update of a lecture on Investment Opportunities in Latin America I gave at Canning House Buy Flagyl online without prescription, in January 2009, and subsequent, unclassified discussions with decision-makers of the US Department of Defense on Latin America’s security issues and the economic crisis.

Overview


The strict, enforced regulation of banks and financial institutions in Latin America saved them from the financial pneumonia afflicting the US.  This does not mean Latin America does not have a bad cold.  But its severity varies with each country, the sub-region in which the country is located, and the afflicted industry.

While commodities exports have fallen along with the region’s estimated average growth in 2009 and 2010, 16 presidential and congressional elections in different countries in the same period have increased concerns about political, economic, Flagyl over the counter, and social stability and security.

What does this mean for investment opportunities and policymaking in the region. Buy Flagyl from canada, It means economic, political, regulatory, and cultural risk assessment will need to be thorough, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, reality-focused, and industry and country specific, Order Flagyl online overnight delivery no prescription, as opposed to overarching regional assessments of risk, which were not that accurate in the past because they lumped countries together.  It also means that corruption, the true underbelly of Latin America’s growth and stability, is likely to increase, buy no prescription Flagyl online, along with informality and violence.  Therefore, strategies for entry or expansion in the region and national policymaking must address these issues to prevent compounding the crisis, Rx free Flagyl, leading to a retardation of recovery.

In an interesting twist of current events, it seems the US needs Latin America, mostly Brazil, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. Las Vegas, Nevada, more than Latin America needs the US.  When it comes to the region, the US remains tied to its failed policies of the 1950s to the mid-1970s, Buy Flagyl without a prescription, while Latin America moved on to establish partnerships and markets outside the sphere of influence of the US.  It is not surprising that Colombia is expanding commercial ties with China, including negotiation of an FTA, in the absence of a US-Colombia FTA that has languished in the US Congress for more than two years.

Investment Opportunities and Risks


Opportunities


Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Perú, and Mexico have diversified economies.  But they, along with the rest of the region, suffer from over-dependency on export-led growth based on oil and gas, minerals, and agricultural commodities for Chile, Colombia, Brazil and Perú, and exports to the US for Mexico, buy Flagyl online without prescription. With the exception of Brazil and Chile that created reserve funds for a rainy day, köpa Flagyl online, Osta Flagyl online, Jotta Flagyl verkossa, the commodities-export crisis left other governments with limited policy space to implement effective countercyclical measures. About 90% of Latin Americans depend, San Diego, California. Dallas, Texas. San Antonio, Texas, directly or indirectly, on commodities exports.

China was the leading buyer in the last four years, but the Chinese market has contracted faster and deeper than projected in mid-2008, order Flagyl online c.o.d, along with market contractions in the US and the EU. Therefore, Flagyl snort, alcohol iteraction, an estimated 85 million people will become unemployed, joining the estimated 248 million who, despite effective programs for poverty alleviation in Brazil, Chile, australia, uk, us, usa, Colombia, and Perú, Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California, still live under US$2/day. Buy Flagyl online without prescription, This makes it hard not to expect social unrest amid demands by displaced groups for government action to increase social services and protections, when the region’s average estimated growth will be 2%, at best, in 2009.  Mexico will have negative growth.  Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua are likely to have the same.

But Latin America will continue to export because the world needs its commodities.  It increased intra-regional consumption in the boom years, and its major corporations are anchored in the global economy.

As the old adage says, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg, crisis means opportunity, if one is ready to see it and take advantage of it.  I believe Latin America is, Where can i buy cheapest Flagyl online, but it will require deliberate planning and focused implementation of strategic approaches.  Thinking outside the box.

This is an excellent time for Latin America to continue to look beyond the US for market diversification, foster research and development, focus on the quality, Detroit, Michigan, San Jose, California, not the quantity of its primary education, and innovate, Kjøpe Flagyl online, bestill Flagyl online, innovate, innovate.  Contrary to popular belief in the industrialized world, there is plenty of talent and risk-taking in Latin America.  There are also large personal fortunes in Mexico, Brazil, reasons to buy Flagyl online, Colombia, and Chile.  Wealthy investors will find attractive opportunities for acquisitions and mergers as the value of assets declines.  Many Latin Americans are used to work, Nashville-Davidson, Tennessee. Portland, Oregon, and many prosper, legally, under ineffectual, corrupt, Flagyl pharmacy, and incompetent governments.  This requires a surplus of creativity, hard work, Buy Flagyl no prescription, and ingenuity.  This is the time to put those attributes to good use.  As Latin Americans say:  "La necesidad es la madre de la industria" ("necessity is the mother of invention").

Latin America has an abundance of commodities, but energy will be the savior in the recession and the driver of the recovery. It is the industry with the largest number of multiplier effects across the region, from skills building to education, to job creation, to critical infrastructure, and to regional integration, buy Flagyl online without prescription.

Energy


Many claim the world’s recession is the bell that tolls for the oil industry.  Not so, köpa Flagyl online, Osta Flagyl online, Jotta Flagyl verkossa. Sugar and corn ethanol, coal, Flagyl samples, biofuels, nuclear, and wind will be part of the energy mix, but oil will be here for years to come.  Therefore, Flagyl coupon, the more Latin America focuses its human resources in innovation and improvement of oil technology, the better the region will perform. Boston, Massachusetts. Charlotte, Carolina, With the world’s second largest reserves of oil and gas, this is the time for upgrading the industry’s exploration, refining, and pipeline capacity, Fort Worth, Texas. Denver, Colorado.

Why do this when oil prices are hovering around US$32/gallon; when Venezuela needs oil at US$80/gallon to support Chávez’ Bolivarian Revolution past 2010. Buy Flagyl online without prescription, Because Brazil’s deep water oil and gas reserves, the pre-sal, have changed the regional dynamics of the industry.  The global recession (shall we say depression?) brought equipment costs down.  Technical and professional personnel, scarce until mid-2008, are available now.  And the geological and geographic characteristics of the pre-sal call for sophisticated, high-precision equipment, and advanced exploration techniques. Brazil can now get the specialized personnel, Buy cheap Flagyl no rx, techniques, and equipment it needs to explore the pre-sal for half or one-third the price it was paying in mid-2008.

Brazil guarantees investors political stability, plenty of top-notch managerial talent, 650mg, 800mg, 875mg, 900mg, clear investment guidelines, and fulfillment of contracts. Flagyl over the counter, The pre-sal is open to FDI without restrictions, although Petrobras has prevailed in bids for a significant number of lots. I believe Petrobras is the most progressive, best managed, where can i find Flagyl online, and most technologically advanced petroleum company in Latin America.  It also has BNDES as a lender of last resort. This is why the company continues its exploration of the pre-sal and its international expansion.  It will continue to ensure Brazil’s recently acquired energy self-sufficiency and will strengthen its position as a world energy player once the recession ends, buy Flagyl online without prescription.

Mexico has no alternative but to open its oil industry to unrestricted FDI. Where can i buy Flagyl online, Despicable and condemnable as the actions of the drug cartels are, President Calderón has sacrificed part of his political capital on an un-winnable war on drugs the US outsourced to Mexico and Colombia. Mexico’s war on drugs is un-winnable because the drug cartels deal in a high-profit product for which there is ample demand in the industrialized world, mainly in the US, rx free Flagyl. It can’t be denied the US is the most ready and profitable market for drug traffickers. Buy Flagyl online without prescription, And the profits that illegality bestows upon their trade are enormous when compared to commodities and industrial products.

Calderón needs his remaining political capital to reform, Comprar en línea Flagyl, comprar Flagyl baratos, or chip at, the 1938 Constitution that created Pemex and nationalized the oil industry.  Pemex needs large quantities of FDI and technology transfers to upgrade the company to industry standards. Mexico is projected to run out of oil in six to seven years if Pemex is not upgraded. With Cantarell’s production down by 31%, Flagyl snort, alcohol iteraction, and overall oil production down to 2.8/mbd in 2008 from 3.1/mbd in 2007, Mexico lost US$20 billion in oil revenue in 2008. Order Flagyl from mexican pharmacy, To expand, or replace Cantarell, if geology allows it, Pemex must be opened to joint venture partnerships with foreign oil companies that have the technology and know-how required to save the company.  Just this week Pemex acknowledged it does not have the technology necessary to explore the reserves it says it discovered off shore.  If US companies are distasteful to many Mexicans, canada, mexico, india, then Mexico should open more opportunities to Petrobras to join Pemex.  If Mexico’s Carlos Slim can own Brazil’s Embratel, why can’t Petrobras own part of Pemex, San Diego, California. Dallas, Texas. San Antonio, Texas, if such a move would favor both companies.

Bolivia would be wise to, once and for all, negotiate with Chile for direct access to the Pacific for its gas exports to Mexico, California, and Western US.  Relying on exports to Brazil, Argentina, and Chile is shortsighted, no matter how much Brazil is willing to invest in Bolivia’s hydrocarbons industry, of which it owns 20%, buy Flagyl online without prescription.

Brazil’s pre-sal means the day is not far when Brazil will not need Bolivia’s gas.  It will also be cheaper and more reliable for Argentina to import gas directly from the pre-sal than from Bolivia. Chile, Bolivia’s gas customer through Brazil and Argentina, Baltimore, Maryland. Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is building LNG terminals and investing US$21 billion in energy projects in-country.  If the Mapuches can hold Chile from building the new hydroelectric in Torres del Paine National Park, it would not be surprising if Chile is the first Latin American country to “go nuclear” to have reliable sources of energy. Australia, uk, us, usa, We can’t forget that Brazil and Argentina are reviving their peaceful nuclear energy programs.  Chile and Latin America can’t afford to continue to depend 90% on hydroelectricity in an age of global warming. Witness the costs the current drought has wrought on Argentina, South and Southwest Brazil, and Uruguay, Jacksonville, Florida, Columbus, Ohio. Buy Flagyl online without prescription, President Chávez can’t continue to use PDVSA as his social development bank.  Once the shining example of a well-run petroleum company, PDVSA can’t pay its suppliers and its debts exceed its current assets. Geography and geology dashed Chávez’s dreams of a pipeline to run from Venezuela through Brazil to Argentina.  His plans for the Bolivarian integration of Latin America ran against the cultural and social differences that exist among all Latin American countries and the political organization and tendencies of their citizens.

Only some analysts in the US and the EU believe Chávez’s revolution can be exported wholesale to the rest of Latin America, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Phoenix, Arizona, particularly to the richer countries.  But his followers, Correa, Morales, Ortega, 125mg, 150mg, 200mg, 250mg, Honduras’s Zelaya, and Argentina’s President Fernández are having difficulties implementing Chávez-like social agendas; not even Argentina has the money to do so; and Chávez is running out of it. Indianapolis, Indiana, San Francisco, California, Integration will come to Latin America’s energy sector not because of Chávez, but thanks to Brazil regional-balancing act, and the energy needs of the region.

Latin America’s Energy Integration & Political Considerations


President Obama will propose and support the creation of a Hemispheric Energy Integration Agenda at the V Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago in April 2009, buy Flagyl online no prescription.

Energy Efficiency, Energy Security, and Climate Change Mitigation will be the cornerstones of the integration proposed by the Obama Administration.  However, Obama’s advisers would be wise to take into account the alliances, concerns, interests, and influences that drive the energy sector in Latin America.  Despite declarations of regional unity, each country is now looking for energy self-sufficiency and independence from energy imports, not integration, buy Flagyl online without prescription.

The Obama Administration needs to exercise restraint if its energy agenda is a poorly disguised scheme to shortcut Chávez and his proposed expansion of his Bolivarian Revolution throughout the region.  Some policymakers are talking of using Brazil to pull from the fire the hot chestnuts the US can no longer influence or direct in Latin America.  Not only will Brazil refuse to be used this way; it will backfire.

Chávez, Flagyl from canadian pharmacy, the self-appointed father of regional integration, did not go out on 15 February.   Although he won the referendum by a 10% margin, 33% of voters were absent.  But he will not last past 2012. I don’t see him staying in power past 2010, 5mg, 50mg, 75mg, 100mg, if oil continues to drop, PDVSA falls deeper into debt and disrepair, 0.4mg, 0.5mg, 1mg, 2.5mg, and food shortages, scarcity of basic services, criminality, and insecurity increase in Venezuela.  Chávez will pour US$12 billion of reserves into health and education to satisfy those who voted for unlimited presidential terms.  Investments in education and health are needed in Venezuela and all over Latin America.  But an injection of US$12 billion will not be enough to compensate, buy Flagyl without prescription, in the long run, for the world drop in oil prices.  Oil over US$80/b and a fractious, Flagyl price, bickering opposition kept Chavez in power. The former is not directly transferable to his followers in Latin America, hurting Chávez’s dreams of integration based on his political and social agenda. Buy Flagyl online without prescription, Morales remains in power in Bolivia because the military is behind him as are the majority of Aymaras, the largest ethnic group in Bolivia, who support him.  As in Venezuela, Bolivia’s opposition in La Media Luna (Tarija, Pando, Santa Cruz, and Chuquisaca) is divided and unable to produce a viable, unifying alternative to Morales.

Ecuador’s Correa is not a Chavito.  Correa is in power because Ecuadorians have learned to work and live amid political upheaval, order Flagyl no prescription, corruption, and inefficiency.  They have lived with and through many Correas already – they know this, Købe Flagyl online, αγοράζουν online Flagyl, too, shall pass.

Daniel Ortega is the product of Nicaragua’s corrupt and bankrupt political system.  It is the Nicaraguans, not Chávez, Flagyl in cats, dogs, children, who are keeping Ortega in power, along with the trans-national criminal gangs that pervade government and society in Nicaragua and Honduras.  The same criminal gangs have turned Guatemala into a failed state, Chicago, Illinois. Houston, Texas, not Chávez, despite his many faults, blunders, authoritarianism, online buy Flagyl without a prescription, and intemperate pronunciations.

Chávez, Flagyl for sale, Morales, Correa and Ortega are the products of the collapse of the political party system that governed their countries, and in the region, for decades, where can i order Flagyl without prescription. Political parties fell because they rotated power among close-knit groups of families whose members shared the spoils of power, influence, Purchase Flagyl online no prescription, and corruption, not because Chávez, Morales, Correa, purchase Flagyl online, and Ortega were the most competent. They were elected because voters had no better alternative.  They continue to win elections because, whether we like it or not, they have delivered on promises made to their hard-core followers.  But the economic crisis is closing their options.  Their promises are becoming empty eleccionerismo – they can’t deliver the goods, buy Flagyl online without prescription. Their supporters will come to this conclusion, Buy Flagyl without a prescription, and will vote them out, but whoever follows will not be much better – systems do not change easily.

Believing otherwise is a throwback to Cold War mentality. However, kjøpe Flagyl online, bestill Flagyl online, this does not mean the landscape has not changed for the US in Latin America.  This recession means the US will have to share its backyard with new entrants, China, Flagyl withdrawal, India, the Middle East, and Russia, now and when the recovery comes.  The US needs to assess and evaluate with a clear head the risks the new entrants pose to its political and economic interests in the region.  The US needs to develop a new model of intra-regional relations from the Latin American’s perspective, buy generic Flagyl. The times when the US spoke and Latin America clicked its heels and saluted are gone.  Not because of Chávez, but because the US left the playground to others while it was engaged elsewhere.  And, Order Flagyl online overnight delivery no prescription, because, politically uncoupled from the US, Latin America looked elsewhere and came of age under the courtship of non-US suitors, and intra-regionally, El Paso, Texas. Washington, D.C. Seattle, Washington.

Risk of Corruption and Violence

Buy Flagyl online without prescription, The economic crisis’s worst threat, and likely legacy, will be higher levels of violence abetted by growing levels of public and private corruption.

Chávez’s revolution and harangues are not dangerous per se.  However, the danger created by Chávez lies in the undeniable fact that, for good or ill, he gave voice to 248 million people who will not remain silent.  These people come from those who have nothing but miserable lives to lose.  And desperate people do desperate things.

Limited policy space, reduced domestic consumption (with the exception of Perú, which has the highest domestic consumption in the region, 9.85%)), and lower growth will leave governments with fewer resources to keep people occupied in legal activities and prepared for a brutally competitive world recovery.

Therefore, governments need to allocate resources to training and development of the workforce, preferably those between 18 and 28 and those made redundant by decreases in exports, and to improving the quality, not the quantity, of primary and secondary education.  Governments need to create public-private partnerships to establish innovation centers where the drive, ambition, and risk-taking required to prosper in the transnational criminal gangs are channeled into productive activities relevant to the industrial and trade demands of the 21st Century, not to reading Don Quiote, valuable as it might be.

If regional governments do not focus their resources and capacities on increasing the social safety net, Latin America’s porous and uncontrollable borders will facilitate the movement of displaced, unemployed, and dissatisfied people.  They will cross borders from country to country in search of limited opportunities. Isn’t it telling that over 500,000 Colombians moved to Ecuador in the last seven years, before the recession struck?  Legal and illegal immigrants who can’t find work will translate into fertile ground for recruitment by drugs, arms, and people trafficking gangs, buy Flagyl online without prescription. Colombia alone has 2 million internally displaced people to contribute to this recruiting pool. Let’s not forget that informality and criminality are often the last recourse of the downtrodden.

Violence, corruption, and informality will increase, retarding the recovery.  Investors, foreign or local, do not relish uncertainty and insecurity. Witness the billions of tourist dollars Mexico is losing thanks to the activities of its drug cartels.  Colombia lost capital and talent aplenty during Pablo’s Wars and the social instability and insecurity created by the criminal activities of the AUC, the FARC, the ELN, and sundry criminal gangs.

Conclusion

Buy Flagyl online without prescription, The global economic crisis is also affecting Latin America adversely, but not as deeply as the US and the EU.  The crisis in the US is forcing Latin America to continue to expand its markets and commercial relationships outside the US’s sphere of influence.  However, to capitalize on these opportunities, Latin America requires governments to focus on the needs of the less fortunate and to incorporate them into the legal economy when the recovery comes.

It is the governments’ obligation not to “export” the less fortunate to the US or the EU so their remittances pay for the basic services governments are elected to provide, in fact privatizing basic services to those who can least afford them, and capitalizing the political gains accrued from keeping people fed, clothed, and sheltered, which is what remittances pay for.

If not, the growth and expansion of local and transitional criminal organizations and the threats they pose to social and economic security will increase with deleterious consequences that will be felt for years to come. The insecurity they will create will retard the recovery, for sure.

Dr. Maria Velez de Berliner
President, mvelez@lat-intel.com.

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